Jakarta, April 15, 2026 — The escalation of tensions in the Gulf region once again demonstrates how geopolitical dynamics often serve as strategic instruments in influencing—and even controlling—access to global energy. On April 13, the United States announced a blockade on Iran’s port access after negotiations with Tehran failed to reach an agreement. This move is expected to disrupt 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products and push oil prices back above USD 100 per barrel.
Arcandra Tahar, Member of the Board of Experts at Prasasti Center for Policy Studies and an Indonesian energy expert, stated that this development highlights the growing role of geopolitics in determining access to global energy.
“Energy diplomacy is a ‘gateway’ to a country’s energy security. Through government-to-government diplomacy, Indonesia can build high-level political alliances that enable direct access to strategic energy assets in various countries,” he said.
According to him, many energy resources—particularly in the Middle East—often require strong intergovernmental relations to be accessed optimally. In such situations, bilateral relations become crucial in opening cooperation opportunities and providing political certainty for overseas energy investments.
Arcandra added that such strategies must be implemented carefully amid increasingly complex global geopolitical dynamics. Indonesia should leverage its independent and active foreign policy to maintain balanced relations amid global rivalries and international sanctions.
“With a position not aligned to any particular power bloc, Indonesia has broad diplomatic space. If utilized properly, intergovernmental political relations can be translated into long-term production cooperation that strengthens national energy supply security,” he added.
Tensions in the Gulf region also highlight the importance of the Strait of Hormuz as a global energy distribution route. This strait channels around 20% of global oil trade, making it one of the most strategic energy chokepoints in the world. Recent security disruptions in the area have increased uncertainty around global energy supply stability and heightened risks in global oil trade.
Halim Alamsyah, also a Member of the Board of Experts at Prasasti, noted that this situation impacts not only the energy sector but could also affect Indonesia’s ability to sustain economic growth momentum amid rising global geopolitical tensions.
Prasasti appreciates the government’s response to the situation while emphasizing the importance of transparency to the public—particularly regarding the impacts of global geopolitical dynamics and the adjustment measures being taken. Clear communication is considered essential to ensure the public understands the evolving situation and maintains realistic expectations for future economic conditions.
Regarding Indonesia’s energy policy response, Halim stressed that it should be designed in stages with different time horizons, as pressures on global energy markets can emerge rapidly but have long-term economic implications.
“In the short term, the government may need to maintain domestic energy price stability through fiscal policies and careful market management. At the same time, beyond energy diplomacy, energy trading activities must be optimized to provide flexibility in mitigating global price volatility,” he said.
In the medium term, the government needs to strengthen the national energy supply structure through diversification of domestic energy sources and enhancement of strategic national energy reserves, providing a stronger buffer against global supply disruptions.
In the long term, Indonesia must build a more fundamental level of national energy resilience. Piter Abdullah, Policy and Program Director at Prasasti, explained that long-term measures include:
“Reducing dependence on high-risk energy distribution routes, expanding domestic energy sources, and promoting a realistic energy transition by considering fiscal capacity and infrastructure readiness. A phased approach like this is essential to ensure that energy policies not only respond to short-term pressures but also strengthen Indonesia’s economic resilience amid increasingly uncertain global geopolitical dynamics.”
He further emphasized that reducing reliance on risky energy routes, expanding domestic sources, and advancing a realistic energy transition are critical long-term priorities.
“A gradual approach ensures that policies are both responsive and structurally strengthening,” he added.
Prasasti views developments in the Strait of Hormuz as evidence of how sensitive global energy routes have become to regional dynamics. In such conditions, Indonesia’s ability to maintain supply stability while managing external risks will be a key determinant of national economic resilience.